I’m a Chicago Bears fan and if you are too, or even if you are just a football fan, you may have heard Lovie Smith’s famous line “we get off the bus running.” After three playoff-less seasons of watching the Bears repeatedly try, and fail, to run the ball, just typing that phrase has me contemplating tasting the end of a gun barrell. Not really, but it does make me sick. But it also got me to thinking: is a dominant running game really that important in today’s NFL? It used to be a requirement for success, but in the era of the spread offense does that still remain true? Just take a look at this year’s playoff teams and I think you will find the answer.
Lets start by looking at some passing statistics. Of the league leaders in quarterback rating the top 4, and 8 of the top 10, have their teams in the playoffs. And the other 2 quarterbacks in the top 10 are Ben Roethlisberger (two Super Bowl rings) and Matt Schaub, whose teams still had a chance at the playoffs going into the last week of the regular season. To take it a step further, 11 of this year’s 12 playoff quarterbacks are in the top 16 in passer rating. The only one that isn’t is Mark Sanchez, and I will be talking more about him soon.
But passer rating doesn’t mean passing yards. You can still have a good passer rating on a run-first team so I took at this season’s leaders in passing yards. Of the top 10 QB’s in passing yards, they all through for over 4,000 yards (when was the last time a Bears QB did that?) and 7 of them made the playoffs, and the other 3 had a chance to get in the playoffs going into the last two weeks of the regular season. In fact, only one of this season’s playoff QBs finished outside the top 20 in passing yards and that, again, was Mark Sanchez. Now compare that to the runningbacks, where just 5 of the league’s top 10 rushers made the playoffs and only 6 of the top 20. Lovie can talk all he wants about how important it is to run the ball and that’s how you win games and become successful, but statistics show otherwise.
Now I’m not saying that the running game isn’t important. Almost all of this season’s playoff teams run the ball very successfully, but they are all pass first teams that spread the field and use the run to keep defenses off balance. The running game is also important at the end of games when trying to hold on to a lead and most of these teams can do that well too. And I also believe that just because you can’t throw the ball doesn’t mean you can’t have success, just look at Sanchez and the Jets. The Jets were the second worse passing team in the league in terms of yardage, but they were one of the best at running the ball and have a dominant defense. And Sanchez was a rookie this year. The Jets will become an even better team as Sanchez grows and becomes a better passer.
So there is still proof that the old formula can work, but running the ball successfully and playing great defense is the key. Now pay attention Lovie, the Bears were 26th in the NFL in yards per carry and 21st in points allowed, the Jets were 5th and 1st in those categories. No matter how many times you run the ball a team will never be successful with rankings like the Bears had in those 2 categories.
Lovie, maybe its time to accept the fact that the best player on you team is your quarterback, not your running back. I hope you realize it would serve your future well to find an offense coordinator that knows how to use him, and then step back and let the man do his job.
Now, I cannot stand the bears, but I have to defend Lovie here. He couldn’t run or throw the ball because that offensive line is just that…offensive. It doesn’t matter how good your QB is if he is on his back…and don’t get me started on the bears receivers… or the defense. But that is not Lovie’s fault, that is the GM that needed to be canned years ago. Lovie has to play with what he has. And if he gets an oline, he has a great running back and QB combo on his hands.
As for your stats, good work. Way to dig and dig into the data to pull out something useful. Based on your presentation, I would say that this is a pass first league.
Thanks for the response Freddie. The point I was trying to get across with the article was Lovie’s ignorance in terms of what it takes to be a successful NFL team. I’m not at all blaming Lovie for the o-line and lack of depth at receiver (although he does have some input into personnel decisions), which is why I didn’t mention those factors. But to your point, Green Bay arguably has one of the worst o-lines in the league, no quarterback was sacked more times that Aaron Rogers this past season. The Packers coaching staff, knowing this, proved that a good game plan, creative play calling, and knowing your personnel strengths and weaknesses can make up for lack of talent on certain areas of the roster. Lovie’s best asset on offense was his quarterback and he flat out refused to use him properly. At one point in the season Lovie went to Ron Turner and told him he was calling too many passing plays and to run the ball more (and I’m not making that up, Cris Collinsworth said that on national television during a Sunday Night Football broadcast). Lovie’s repeated statements about running the football to be successful are as ignorant as banging your head against a wall 100 times and expecting a different result the 101st time. Thanks again for the comment, I love the feedback.
I saw this on Joe Buck Live and I think its pertains here. Floyd “Money” Mayweather on betting on Peyton Manning:
“Mayweather quotes from Joe Buck Live:
On sports betting:
“Peyton Manning won me a lot of money,” “Like 1.3 million.”
“i won like a $1,000,000 on football betting last week.”
You don’t win that kind of money, on a running team and apparently “Money” doesn’t think so either.
http://www.examiner.com/x-10947-Indianapolis-Fight-Sports-Examiner~y2009m12d9-Mayweather-continues-his-Pacquiao-trash-talk-on-Joe-Buck-Live
Ryan I see your point. Why if this is a “running team” did they go after and spend way to much on cutler? I think to be a successfull running team you need a good QB to see the field and if need be throw a audible.
If the offense line was any good they would be able to open holes for the running back and he could get some yardaged. If you are always in 3rd and long you have to pass. It puts you in predictable situations. But if you can run well you can chew up the time get your defense rest and get the other defense tired, 300 lb lineman are bound to get tried if you are constanley runing the ball down there throat. the more you have the ball and could score the more wins you will get. If you have to pass in the red zone the defense expects it and plays pass and you get intercepted some time, and that was any fault of the bears was the interceptions, not all was culter’s fault but there was some, also if you can pass though and have a deep threat you can open the run came up, so if you can be blanced you would be better, also if you have a excleent return man keep him in returns not your number one receiver.
I don’t even want to think about the bears right now. Until they get rid of Philps, Angelo, and Smith the team is going nowhere, Cutler or no Cutler, running game or no running game. They can’t even hire assistants right now because no one wants to work for a lam duck staff. Why they didn’t just clean house all the way I don’t know. It was like sweeping dirt under the carpet firing those assistants. This is a franchise in total disarray with no forward direction. Next year look for 4 wins max. I’m gettin of this bus now because it sucks!
We have to talk about the Bears occasionally because, whether you want to admit it or not, its a big story in Chicago sports. They just may not be the kind of story we all were hoping they would be at this point in the year. Watching the Bears’ brass take a bad coaching situation and make it worse is, unfortunately, news in this region until they get it taken care of. But you are absolutely right, the McCaskeys should have cleaned house on black Monday. There were dozens and dozens of reasons to do it and they would have had the support of everyone in the city, but unfortunately, there were 11 million and one reasons not to do it. The 11 million reasons happen to the amount left of Lovie’s contract, a huge amount for the notoriously cheap McCaskeys, and the other one reason is the labor sitution. Why bring in a new coach and try to start over when there may not even be a 2011 season. Financially it makes sense to let Lovie ride out the labor uncertainty and then start fresh with a coach after this mess has been sorted out. By then one more year will be off Lovie’s contract so it’ll be easier to cut him loose or, if this drags into 2011, his contract will be up and there is no financial loss to letting him go.
Uhhh….its only a passing league now with out me in it. When I was out there picking off QBs they had to run the ball. Prime Time changed the game son. The NFL needs to listen to me and think about changing the name name of my old position cornerbacks to….uhhh….left and right Deions!
To be completely honest, I think you are right Prime Time. One of the reasons the NFL is a passing league is because of a lack of good cover corners. But on the other hand, is it because the corners aren’t as talented as were in your day or is it because the rules won’t allow them to fully use their talent? The rules have changed since the 90s. Ever since Ty Law got away the molesting Marvin Harrison in the 2003 AFC championship game, a game Colts fans would argue they would have won if not for that, the NFL big wigs have made an effort to change the rules to make them more offense friendly, specifically in the passing game. While there seems to be a lack of Hall of Fame talent at the cornerback position these days, I think its the rule changes that have had the biggest impact of the shift from a running to a passing league.
I think the combination of a good running game/good defense will win more games they just having a stellar passing attack. But if you have a weak passing attack and your defense fails you… look out because its about to be a blowout.